A Tsunami of Crude Exports?

Morningstar has published a report analyzing oil pipeline and refining capacities along the Texas Gulf Coast – “Pipeline Plans Suggest Tsunami of Crude Exports – Midstream companies looking to double Gulf Coast shipments.”  pipeline-plans-suggest-tsunami-of-crude-exports-FINAL  If all planned pipelines are built and run to capacity, new lines “would carry as much as 7.7 mmb/d of new crude to the Gulf Coast, the majority of which would be light shale crude looking for a home in the export market.”

The result:  a fourfold increase in crude exports to more than 8 mmb/d after 2021.  Morningstar concludes:

Fortunately, current production forecasts don’t match the volume of pipeline projects, and crude growth over the next three years is likely to be closer to 3 mmb/d. The mismatch suggests an infrastructure overbuild is underway in the short term, and we expect consolidation of many of these projects before they’re built. Yet the history of shale expansion has taught us that the most optimistic forecasts frequently appear in the rearview mirror.

Maybe these new pipelines will reduce the discount now being paid for Permian crude.