New federal data shows that the Energy Department expects drillers in the Permian Basin to push oil production in the shale play above 2 million barrels per day for the first time ever this November.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s monthly Drilling Productivity Report released Monday, which covers seven of the biggest shale plays in the country, projects production in the Permian to jump by 17,000 bpd this month. That increase would bring the play above the 2 million bpd mark. In December, the EIA expects the play to grow again by 11,000 bpd.
But the Permian is one of the outliers — the only other play expected to grow over the next two months is the Utica in the Appalachian region. Combined with the other five plays — the Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Marcellus and Niobrara plays — oil output overall is projected to fall to 4.95 million bpd the end of the year. That would be a fall of nearly 560,000 bpd from an April 2015 peak of 5.51 million bpd.
The Eagle Ford in South Texas has had the biggest impact on overall U.S. production growth. The EIA projects output in the Eagle Ford to fall 436,000 bpd by December from a peak of 1.71 million bpd in March.
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